Nvidia Hits $5T, Markets Climb — But Fed’s December Cut Still on Thin Ice

Like a blockbuster franchise that refuses to quit, markets kept climbing from October 26 through November 1 — delivering record after record while investors juggled Fed speak, Big Tech earnings bonanzas, and that eternal cliff-hanger: will Trump and Xi finally kiss and make up? The S&P 500 notched yet another all-time high (its 33rd this year, for those keeping score), proving once again that nothing — not even a government shutdown blocking critical economic data — can derail this bull market’s swagger. Think of it as the “Indiana Jones” approach to investing: blindfolded, swinging across chasms, somehow landing safely on the other side.

The week of October 26–November 1 delivered a satisfying encore, with the S&P 500 adding 0.71% to close Friday at 6,840 — extending its winning streak to six consecutive months. The Nasdaq Composite powered ahead with a 2.24%weekly gain to finish at 23,724, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average eked out a 0.75% advance to 47,562. For the month, October delivered solid returns: the S&P rose 1.92%, the Nasdaq surged 4.7% (its seventh straight monthly gain — the longest streak since early 2018), and the Dow climbed 2.5%.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin danced around the $110,000 mark, closing the week near $110,209. The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.11% as bond traders recalibrated expectations for the Fed's rate cuts.

Like watching your favorite sports team win while the ref keeps changing the rules, investors celebrated gains even as Jerome Powell pulled the rug from under December rate-cut hopes.

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Nvidia Corporation Becomes First Company to Hit $5 Trillion Market Cap:

Jensen Huang’s chip empire made history Wednesday, becoming the first publicly-traded company ever to breach $5 trillion in market capitalization — a milestone achieved just three months after hitting $4 trillion. The surge came on the heels of Nvidia’s GPU Technology Conference in Washington, where CEO Huang disclosed over $500 billion in orders for AI chips through end-2026, calling it unprecedented revenue visibility for a tech company. The chipmaker also unleashed a deal bonanza: partnerships with the U.S. Department of Energy (seven new supercomputers using 10,000 Blackwell GPUs), Uber (100,000 autonomous vehicles by 2027), Eli Lilly (1,000+ GPUs for drug discovery), and Nokia (a 6G wireless push netting Nvidia a 3% stake). President Trump added fuel by suggesting he’d discuss Blackwell chip access to China with President Xi, potentially reopening a market where Nvidia’s share cratered from 95% to zero. Nvidia shares jumped 5% on Tuesday and another 3% on Wednesday, cementing its lead over Microsoft and Apple (both of which are near $4 trillion). The AI-infrastructure arms race shows zero signs of slowing, with Nvidia controlling an estimated 90% of the AI chip market share — turning every data-center buildout into a de facto Nvidia order.

Federal Reserve Cuts Rates 0.25%, But Powell Says December “Not a Foregone Conclusion”:

The Fed cut rates by a quarter point to 3.75–4.00% on Wednesday, but Chair Powell surprised markets by warning that a December cut is “far from” guaranteed. Citing “strongly different views” among officials and a data blackout from the government shutdown, Powell said the Fed is “driving in the fog.” Two members dissented — one wanted a bigger cut, another none at all. Markets wobbled, with the S&P briefly dipping and Treasury yields spiking as December cut odds fell from 90% to 67%. The Fed also paused its balance-sheet runoff to stabilize money markets. Powell’s tone signaled unease over sticky 3.0% inflation and unclear labor data — setting up a volatile, headline-driven finish to the year.

Consumer Price Index Cools to 3.0%, Beating Expectations:

Amid the shutdown, the BLS delivered rare data: September CPI rose 3.0% year-over-year — slightly below forecasts and just above August’s 2.9%. Core CPI matched at 3.0%, easing from 3.1%, with monthly core inflation slowing to 0.2%. Shelter costs finally softened while gas spiked 4.1%. The tame print gave the Fed room to cut rates in October and briefly boosted hopes for another in December. Still, analysts warn tariffs are creeping into goods prices, with Goldman and BNP expecting stronger pass-through effects in early 2026 as inventories thin. Inflation looks manageable for now, but not conquered — leaving the Fed balancing support for jobs against the risk of a price rebound.

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping Reach Trade Truce: Tariffs Cut 10%, Rare-Earths Deal Extended:

After months of rising tensions, Trump and Xi met in Busan and struck a one-year truce that Trump called “a 12 out of 10.” The deal cuts fentanyl-related tariffs by 10%, suspends China’s rare-earth export controls, and pauses retaliatory port fees. China also agreed to resume U.S. farm imports, offering relief to battered producers. Trump is expected to visit China in April 2026, with Xi reciprocating later. Still, the pact is tactical, not transformative — major disputes over industrial policy, chip exports, and TikTok remain unresolved. Markets inched higher but stayed wary; past truces haven’t lasted. For now, rare-earth-dependent sectors are given breathing room, although supply-chain diversification continues.

Meta beat on Q3 revenue but tanked 11% after-hours following news of ballooning AI spending and a $15.93 billion one-time tax hit from Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.” Capex for 2025 is now $70–$72 billion, up from $66–$72 billion, as Zuckerberg doubles down on AI infrastructure and hiring. Unlike Microsoft or Google, Meta lacks cloud profits to offset costs, so investors questioned ROI as margins shrink. The drop wiped out nearly $200 billion in market cap — its worst day in three years — and knocked Zuckerberg down the billionaire list. Revenue rose 18%, but Wall Street’s patience for AI “spend now, profit later” is wearing thin.

Microsoft’s Q1 FY2026 topped estimates, yet shares slipped 3% after-hours as AI costs and cautious guidance overshadowed the beat. CFO Amy Hood said Azure demand “exceeds supply,” but OpenAI expenses shaved $3.1 billion off profit. Capex will now accelerate in FY 2026 — likely topping $94 billion — reversing prior slowdown signals. Investors worry hyperscalers are spending faster than they can monetize AI. Still, Azure’s 40%+ growth and Copilot adoption keep the long-term thesis intact. Microsoft’s edge via its exclusive OpenAI access remains strong, but Wall Street wants margin expansion, not just bragging rights.

Alphabet smashed Q3 expectations with $102.35 billion in revenue and a standout $15.16 billion from Google Cloud. AI Overviews and the Gemini app (650 million users) boosted engagement, easing fears that generative AI would cannibalize search. Alphabet hiked 2025 capex to $91–93 billion, and unlike rivals, cash flow easily covers it — prompting a 6% after-hours stock jump. Analysts called it a turning point: the company has shaken off antitrust overhangs and shed its “AI laggard” label. With bets like Waymo and quantum computing, Alphabet’s AI moat is deep and widening.

Amazon’s AWS posted 20% cloud growth in Q3, its fastest since 2022, calming fears it was lagging in AI. “Project Rainier,” a new Trainium2 super-cluster with Anthropic as anchor client, headlined a strong report that sent shares up 9.6% to record highs. AWS now runs at $100 billion+ annually and remains the third major hyperscaler, with scale and enterprise ties providing an edge. AI demand is fueling a multi-year expansion cycle. Unlike Meta’s spending anxiety, Amazon’s results showed that when cloud revenue beats, investors cheer more capex.

Apple beat expectations in Q4 and promised double-digit iPhone growth this holiday quarter — roughly double Wall Street’s forecast. Early data shows iPhone 17 outselling 16 by 14% in the U.S. and China, powered by Apple Intelligence hype (even with the full AI Siri still pending). CEO Tim Cook warned of supply constraints, and shares dipped 0.4%. At $4 trillion in market cap, Apple joins Microsoft and Nvidia in the elite club. Investors are betting on an iPhone “Air”-driven upgrade super-cycle — if supply chains hold.

Chipotle trimmed sales guidance for the third straight quarter, blaming “persistent macroeconomic pressure” and fading pricing power as younger, job-hungry customers pull back. Ex-CEO Brian Niccol (now at Starbucks) left a tough playbook, and management’s buzzwords — “menu innovation” and “digital experiences” — failed to impress. Analyst Sharon Zackfia quipped that “$1 sauce add-ons might be working against the concept.” The stock wobbled as investors fretted over inflation-weary consumers and slowing traffic. Even burritos have limits when wallets are thin.

Brian Niccol’s Starbucks debut brewed optimism: the company logged its first global sales increase in nearly two years. His turnaround plan — simplify menus, refresh stores, and revive the “third place” vibe — is resonating early. Starbucks has battled boycotts, union fights, and fading brand warmth. Now, Niccol must balance premium prices with value in a cautious consumer climate. One quarter isn’t a trend, but investors are finally seeing foam on top instead of just grounds.

Netflix popped 2.9% after announcing a 10-for-1 stock split to widen access for employees and retail investors. The move caps a strong 2025 run powered by subscriber growth, live sports, and ad-tier success. While purely cosmetic, it signals confidence and aims to keep Netflix in the “Magnificent Seven” mix as shares topped $700 pre-split. Like Nvidia and Tesla before it, Netflix is proving that even in streaming, scale — and spectacle — still sell.

Oil majors posted weaker profits as prices softened and refining margins narrowed. Exxon and Chevron reaffirmed their dividends and buybacks; Chevron shares rose 1.9%, while Exxon's fell 1.5%. With WTI hovering near $70/barrel, producers are treading carefully — investing enough to meet future demand (especially LNG and gas) without overspending. The AI boom offers a twist: data center energy demand may help keep natural gas prices supported even as crude prices wobble.

Reddit impressed Wall Street with stronger-than-expected revenue and daily active users, driven by AI-enhanced ad tools. Shares jumped after-hours, extending a stellar first year as a public company. The platform’s niche communities attract advertisers seeking engagement that Meta can’t match — if Reddit can monetize without angering its famously opinionated users, a delicate balance, but one that’s paying off — for now.

At 95, Warren Buffett is stepping aside from writing Berkshire Hathaway’s iconic annual letter. Vice Chair Greg Abel will take over in February 2026, after Buffett’s farewell Thanksgiving note on November 10. The move formalizes a long-planned transition; Buffett will also skip the 2026 shareholder meeting stage. Investors mark the moment as the end of an era — one built on wit, wisdom, and compounding patience. Abel’s test: keep the culture, keep the returns, and avoid becoming the first guy to misspell “moat.”

Gold fell 2.75% for the week, retreating from record highs above $4,300/oz to about $4,002/oz on November 1 as risk appetite improved following the Trump–Xi trade truce and strong Big Tech earnings. A firmer dollar and higher Treasury yields (10-year at 4.11%) also dampened demand for non-yielding assets. Analysts view the drop as a technical correction — Goldman still targets $4,900/oz by the end of 2026, citing central bank buying and ETF inflows amid Fed easing. With inflation stubborn and geopolitical tensions simmering, gold’s long-term bull case remains strong as funds continue using it as a hedge against currency and debt risks.

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Mortgage rates hovered near 6.17% at the end of October — down from over 7% earlier this year but still high by historical standards. The dip followed the Fed’s October rate cut, though Powell’s cautious tone has kept long-term yields sticky. Experts expect rates to stay in the mid-6% range through November unless major data shifts the outlook. Pending home sales rose in September, and existing sales hit a seven-month high of 4.06 million, up 1.5% month-over-month. Still, affordability is strained: prices are 2.1% higher year-over-year, and inventory remains tight. REITs lagged in October amid rate uncertainty. In short, housing is idling — off the brink, but far from booming.

Market mood on social media was a cocktail of euphoria (Nvidia! $5 trillion!), anxiety (Fed pivot doubt!), and exhaustion (another Trump-Xi “deal” that solves nothing!). Twitter/X buzzed with traders celebrating the S&P’s relentless grind higher while simultaneously bracing for Tuesday’s off-year elections — Virginia’s gubernatorial race and California’s redistricting proposition drew particular attention from political junkies. Reddit’s WallStreetBets crowd cheered Amazon’s moonshot Friday, with memes comparing Jeff Bezos to a Bond villain (the successful kind). StockTwits sentiment skewed bullish on tech but nervous about December rate-cut odds fading — “Powell giveth, Powell taketh away” was a recurring theme. Overall, retail investors remain cautiously optimistic, riding the AI wave but keeping one finger hovering over the sell button as the calendar flips to a potentially volatile November.

Pair this week’s market action with a bold Napa Cabernet Sauvignon — rich, structured, and built for the long haul, just like Nvidia’s $5 trillion valuation. For the main course, try a dry-aged ribeye (because nothing says “we’re still bullish” like premium beef). If markets dip post-election, switch to mac and cheese and a cold beer — comfort food for uncomfortable times.