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Last Week’s Review
The 43-day government shutdown finally wheezed to an ending, but only after vaporizing $11 billion in GDP and stranding investors in an economic fog so thick even Google Maps would’ve thrown its hands up. Markets spent the week whipsawing on Fed ambiguity, tech-valuation indigestion, and the realization that October’s unemployment report is now a historical artifact—like Blockbuster, but with worse consequences. Bitcoin face-planted 5% on Friday, gold slid 2%, and the S&P barely held the line at 6,734. The only winners? Energy and healthcare, as investors rotated defensively while muttering about “AI froth” and “multiples stretched like yoga pants in January.”
Last Week’s Market Scorecard
The S&P 500 wrapped Friday at 6,734, slipping a microscopic (-0.05%) but still flexing a 14.7% year-over-year gain—think of it as a victory lap done with a sprained ankle. The Nasdaq managed a heroic 0.06% lift to 23,008, while the Dow tripped over its own shoelaces, dropping 310 points (-0.65%) to 47,147. Bitcoin got rinsed like a novice barista’s first espresso portafilter—falling from $99,730 Thursday to $94,456 Friday. Even crypto can’t escape macro dread plus profit-taking. The 10-year Treasury ended in the 4.08–4.14% range, while the 2-year chilled at 3.56%, keeping the curve positively sloped at +0.52. Translation: no recession signal blinking red… yet. But the Fed’s got decisions to make, and this week felt less “standard November” and more “season finale cliffhanger where the hero may or may not return next season.” Spoiler: Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday are the cliffhanger resolution.
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Last Week’s Top News Headlines & Market Impacts
The Longest Shutdown in History Finally Ends—But the Damage is Done
After 43 days, Congress finally remembered how to govern. The shutdown permanently nuked $11B in GDP, delayed 30+ major data releases, and torched up to $16B in federal wages. The thousands of canceled flights, and 42 million SNAP recipients saw delays—so basically, everyone suffered except the lawmakers who caused it.
Market Impact: Uncertainty is still fogging the windshield. September’s jobs report drops Thursday (Nov 20). October’s unemployment rate? Never happening. Powell says the Fed is “driving in fog,” which is precisely what you want to hear from the person steering the economy.
Fed Rate Cut Odds Collapse to 47%—Down from 95% a Month Ago
Markets went from “rate cuts are guaranteed” to “maybe, possibly, if the stars align” in under 30 days. Missing data, sticky 3% inflation, and Powell’s “not a foregone conclusion” jab derailed dovish fantasies.
Market Impact: Yields jumped, the dollar flexed, and equities sulked. A weak September jobs print on Thursday could resurrect December rate-cut dreams—otherwise, January at best.
Tech Stocks Face AI Valuation Reckoning—$1 Trillion Market Cap Evaporates
The Magnificent Seven had an un-magical week, shedding approximately $1 trillion in combined market cap. Nvidia slipped 3.7%, Palantir cratered, and the Nasdaq had its worst week since April. Michael Burry (yes, that Burry) allegedly loaded up short positions on Nvidia and Palantir—because nothing says “good morning” like a famous bear throwing shade at your portfolio.
Market Impact: Defensive rotation kicked into high gear. Analysts warn a 5%+ pullback if valuations don’t chill. Nvidia’s earnings on Wednesday may determine whether this was a hiccup or the AI bubble deflating in real-time.
Bitcoin Crashes Below $95K After Touching $103K Earlier
Crypto had a mood swing for the ages: from $103K zen to $94,456 chaos. Profit-taking, hawkish Fed vibes, and macro nerves did the damage. Silver fell 2.8%, platinum 2.1%—precious metals joined the disappointment parade.
Market Impact: Correlation with risk assets remains alive and well. If the Fed remains hawkish in December, BTC may continue to bleed. But if $90K holds, the dip-buyers will swarm, just as they did in 2020.
Gold Plunges 2% as Safe-Haven Trade Reverses
Gold slipped to $4,080–$ 4,083/oz, down from $4,220 mid-week, as investors considered whether fear is overrated. Real yields rising = gold’s least favorite thing.
Market Impact: Watch $4,000 support. Fall through and hello, $3,900.
October Jobs & Inflation Data Will “Likely Never” Be Released
The White House confirmed that October’s unemployment rate and CPI have been erased from the timeline like a Marvel multiverse glitch.
Market Impact: Fed’s flying blind and everyone knows it.
Mortgage Rates Hold Near 3-Year Lows at 6.00–6.24%
Rates dipped, but housing remains stuck in molasses: high prices, low inventory, buyers traumatized.
Market Impact: If the Fed hesitates on cuts, rates could nudge higher again.
Inflation Holds at 3.0% (September)—October Gone for Good
Gas and shelter kept CPI sticky.
Market Impact: Still above the Fed’s 2% target… and with less data, the policy picture gets messier.
TSMC’s $165B U.S. Expansion Excites… Briefly
Great long-term news for chips; useless in the short term against AI panic selling.
Market Impact: Fundamentals good; vibes bad.
Walmart, Home Depot, Medtronic Earnings on Deck
Big week for consumer + medtech.
Market Impact: Strong prints calm markets; weak prints pour gasoline on recession chatter.
Top News Headlines For This Week:
NVIDIA EARNINGS WEDNESDAY — THE MAIN EVENT
Q3 results after the bell. EPS est. $1.23, revenue $54.6B. Guidance is everything.
Market Impact: Nvidia can single-handedly rescue tech… or detonate a 10% correction. No pressure.
Delayed September Jobs Report Drops Thursday
Finally. 65K jobs expected.
Market Impact: Weak data = December cut odds spike.
FOMC Minutes Wednesday
Expect hawks and doves reenacting West Side Story.
Market Impact: Any hint of a pause equals stock pressure and dollar strength.
Walmart Earnings Thursday
The ultimate consumer reality check.
Market Impact: Weak consumer = recession sirens.
Home Depot Earnings Tuesday
A litmus test for big-ticket spending.
Market Impact: Pro strength could offset DIY doom.
Palo Alto Networks Earnings Wednesday
Cyber demand good; valuations… debatable.
Market Impact: Could move cyber ETFs.
Flash PMI Friday
Global business sentiment: the mood ring of macro.
Market Impact: Weak = rate-cut hype; strong = pause locked in.
October Housing Starts & Permits Wednesday
Still delayed, but still important.
Market Impact: Weakness pressures homebuilders.
Gold Watch
Gold closed at $4,080–4,083/oz, down 2% after flirting with $4,200 the day before—classic “don’t get comfortable” behavior. Over the last month, it’s slipped 3%, though year-over-year it’s still up 59%, which feels illegal but isn’t. With inflation sticky and the Fed stubborn, gold is caught between “I should go up!” and “I absolutely should not.” If the December jobs report bombs, gold could shoot back to $4,200. For now, eyes on $4,000 support. Below that? Bring on $3,900 and the Twitter gold bugs screaming in all caps.
Real-Estate Pulse
Mortgage rates continue their slow melt at 6.00–6.24% (30-year) and 5.50–5.57% (15-year). That’s a far cry from the 7%+ trauma zone of early 2025, but don’t expect the housing market to stand up and stretch suddenly. Prices remain stubborn, inventory is tighter than TSA security after a shutdown, and buyers remain skittish. Purchase apps rose 6% last week, refis now account for 56% of activity, and buyers are desperately trying to manifest affordability. If the Fed skips December cuts, rates could drift up again and freeze the market through the holidays. But January? Could be spicy.
FinTwit spent the week ping-ponging between “Fed pivot confirmed!” and “Higher for longer forever amen.” AI bubble debates went nuclear, with bulls swearing Nvidia will justify every penny of its vertical chart and bears sharpening their pitchforks. Crypto Twitter held a candlelight vigil for Bitcoin’s slide from $103K, while housing folks argued whether 6% mortgages are the new normal or just a layover on the way to 5%. Consensus: none. Entertainment value: high.
Wine & Dine
Pair this week’s psychological turbulence with a bold Cabernet Sauvignon—something robust enough to stand up to hawkish Fed speeches and Nvidia’s earnings volatility. Breathe it. Sip it. Pretend you understand economics.
Wrapping Up
The shutdown’s over, but the economic hangover is alive and well. With October’s data erased from existence, December’s Fed meeting is now a cosmic coin toss. Nvidia’s Wednesday earnings aren’t just another tech report—they’re this market’s verdict on whether AI is the future or a very expensive hallucination. Add in delayed jobs data, FOMC minutes, nonstop Fed speeches, wobbling gold, bleeding Bitcoin, and mortgage rates trying to flirt their way lower, and you’ve got a week that could either confirm the bull case or turn the bull into brisket. Smart money is parking in healthcare and energy. Dumb money is YOLOing into tech, as if it were 2021. Keep your stops tight, your caffeine levels high, and your expectations reasonably low. Anything can happen in a data-less, Fed-wobbly market.
See you next week—same time, same chaos—when we find out whether Nvidia saved the world or popped the bubble.
Disclaimer
This newsletter is for entertainment, sarcasm, and the occasional emotional support meme — not financial advice, life coaching, marital counseling, or authorization to chase zero-day options like you’re auditioning for “Jackass: Wall Street Edition.” Past performance does not predict future results, unless we’re talking about political gridlock, Fed confusion, or your cousin Chad’s terrible crypto picks — those absolutely repeat.
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