Tracking The Trade

Add social links

Sep 14, 2026

The Week Ahead: Everyone Can See the Rabbit

The Fed's hike is priced like a sure thing. The real trick is what it says about October.

Sep 13, 2026

Star Trek Turned 60 This Week. It Got Famous After It Got Cancelled.

Sixty years ago, a science fiction show premiered on NBC and lost. The network canceled it. Then a lot of kids came home from school, turned on the TV, and quietly turned it into a legend.

Sep 12, 2026

Week In Review: The Dentist Said Root Canal. Wall Street Said Finally.

Oil ran 9%, the 30-year yield hit its highest since 2007, and hot inflation all but booked a rate hike. Stocks rallied.

Sep 11, 2026

Oil Hit $100. The Oil Companies Called In Sick.

Crude had its best day in a month, energy stocks fell anyway, the 30-year yield hit its highest since 2007, and Oracle spent $28 billion in a quarter to a standing ovation. CPI lands at 7:30.

Sep 10, 2026

The Jobs Report Was Great, Which Is the Problem

August added 162,000 jobs versus 56,000 expected; June and July added another 55,000, and the S&P fell anyway. Hike odds jumped nine points in a day. Then everyone got a three-day weekend to sit with it, and Canada opened Tuesday by taxing your steel.

Sep 8, 2026

The Week Ahead: Nobody at the Fed Is Allowed to Talk About Friday

Two inflation prints, a tanker war, and an Apple keynote. The one institution that matters is on mute.

Sep 7, 2026

The Holiday Was Signed in the Middle of a Strike

Labor Day was not invented for mattresses. The law was signed on June 28, 1894, while the trains were stopped, a company town was on strike, and the troops had not left for Chicago yet.

Sep 6, 2026

Pay What You Can. Then Get Back on the Road.

In a Glendale driveway there is no estimate and nobody asks what you make. A dad and his teenage son have been fixing cars this way for ten years.

Sep 5, 2026

Week In Review: America Found 44,000 Jobs It Never Lost

July's 23,000 lost jobs were never lost. August tripled the forecast. The search party is still out there with flashlights.

Sep 4, 2026

The Inflation Data Won the Argument and Lost the Day

Services prices printed 72.6 against 66 expected. Then a Fed governor said he was inclined to hold; the odds of a hike fell from about 66% to roughly 55%, and the market stopped taking the data's calls. Payrolls at 7:30, then three days to sit with the answer.

Sep 3, 2026

The Fed Finally Sent Out Somebody Who Isn't Angry

ADP came in soft. Then New York's John Williams said there are no clear signs a September hike is needed. Yields backed off their intraday high, small caps ran 1.18%, and gold got up off the floor. The hike is still priced. The panic is not.

Sep 2, 2026

War Used to Be a Fear Trade. Now It's an Inflation Trade.

The US bombed IRGC targets at noon Eastern, and Iran fired back the same afternoon. Oil rose 5.5%, gold dropped 2.9%, and the 10-year closed at its highest level of 2026. Nobody hid. Everybody repriced.

Sep 1, 2026

The Shooting Started Again. Gold Went Down Anyway.

The US and Iran traded strikes, a tanker took three projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, and oil ran 3.1%. The one asset built for exactly this day did nothing at all, because Kevin Warsh got to the front of the line on Friday.

Aug 31, 2026

The Week Ahead: The Scorekeeper Erased Last Season

79,000 jobs were never there. The Fed gets one week to talk about it, then goes dark.

Aug 30, 2026

Houston Turns 190 Today. It Started as an Ad That Wasn't True.

Two brothers from New York promised a healthy sea breeze and ocean ships tying up at your door. The site was a swamp fifty miles inland. The lie took about a century to come true, and the person who probably paid for it is not named on a single piece of paper.

Aug 29, 2026

Week In Review: Everyone Saw the Tide Chart - Everyone Built Anyway

Four days of gains, one Friday morning speech, and the odds of a September rate hike went from 35% to 57%.

Aug 28, 2026

Everything Scary Got Cancelled Thursday. The Chair Speaks at Nine.

Nvidia rose 8.7%, three software companies rose more than 20%, and jobless claims came in at 203,000. So the market sold its insurance the night before Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote.

Aug 27, 2026

The S&P Moved Seventeen Cents. Everything Else Waited Until After the Bell.

Hot inflation, a 4.6% growth nowcast and a $17 billion Meta settlement, and the index still finished where it started. Then Nvidia opened its mouth at 4:01.

Aug 26, 2026

The Mines Are Gone. Also, Someone Should Go Clear the Mines.

Crude fell 4.58% on a meeting that produced a framework instead of a deal. Bonds took the win early, gold set another August high, and Nvidia gets to decide the rest of the week after the close.

Aug 25, 2026

Everybody Cashed Their Chips In. The Table Does Not Open Until Wednesday.

Semiconductors got dumped on a Monday, with the loudest headline being Nvidia raising prices. Gold, bonds, and the Dow spent the session quietly, not being semiconductors.

Aug 24, 2026

The Week Ahead: Wednesday Decides It. Friday Explains It.

July PCE at dawn, Nvidia at dusk, and the new Fed Chair does not say a word until it is all over.

Aug 23, 2026

The Parks Turn 110 on Tuesday. Go Stand in One.

The most famous letter in American conservation probably never existed. The agency it created turns 110 on Tuesday, and every gate it owns is open.

Aug 22, 2026

Week In Review: The Headliner Bombed. The Opening Act Went Up 177%.

Nvidia fell all five days. A biotech nobody was watching nearly tripled in an afternoon. Same week.

Aug 21, 2026

The Factories Are Booming. Walmart Says Nobody Is Buying.

A manufacturing survey printed its best number in two years on the same morning the largest retailer on earth beat, raised, and lost nine percent. The bond market picked a side before lunch.

Aug 20, 2026

The Fed Talked Tough. The Treasury Wrote a Check.

Minutes showed a committee itching to hike. A piece of Treasury paperwork released the same morning made the bond market stop caring, and gold, bitcoin and long bonds all took the hint.