What Happened Yesterday
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
The 30-second version: the giant tech companies slipped, but almost everything else went up, so the Dow jumped 1% while the Nasdaq went nowhere. If your 401(k) is a plain S&P 500 fund, it finished a hair ahead. Tonight, Tesla and Meta report, and that's when the starters have to play.
Market | Close | Move | Mood |
|---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 | 7,712.57 | +0.28% | Quietly fine |
Nasdaq Composite | 26,424.82 | -0.02% | Sat this one out |
Dow Jones | 52,495.88 | +1.02% (+530 pts) | Dunked on everybody |
SOX (chip index) | 11,283.81 | -0.29% | Benched |
VIX (fear gauge) | 17.31 | -6.1% | Unclenched |
Small caps (fund, IWM) | $275.78 | +1.66% | Got real minutes |
Gold (fund, GLD) | $377.65 | -0.54% | Riding the pine |
Oil (fund, USO) | $160.61 | -0.12% | Whiplash, net zero |
10-year Treasury yield | 5.12% | down from 5.15% | Took a breath |
Bitcoin | ~$82,940 | +1.3% | Shooting around |
Small caps, gold, and oil are funds (IWM, GLD, USO). For those rows, watch the move, not the price. The price is just what one share of the fund costs.
The $1,000 test: $1,000 in the S&P 500 at Monday's close was worth about $1,003 on Tuesday. In the Dow: about $1,010. In a fund that gives every S&P company an equal vote, about $1,012.
The star players had an off night
The bench scored 30
On Monday, a few giant tech stocks did all the work. Tuesday flipped it. Apple fell 1.0%, Alphabet 1.1%, and Meta 1.6%. NVIDIA and Microsoft slipped about 0.3% each. The tech-heavy Nasdaq finished flat, down a rounding error.
And yet the Dow, which is packed with older industrial names, jumped 1%, or about 530 points. A fund of small companies rose 1.7%. A version of the S&P where every company counts the same rose 1.2%, four times what the regular S&P managed. In plain English, the average stock had a much better day than the famous ones.
Who scored? The kind of companies your grandpa owned. 3M rose 5.8% after raising its yearly profit forecast and landing that Amazon data center deal we covered Tuesday. Northrop Grumman gained 4.6% after it and RTX both raised their profit forecasts on military demand, per Reuters. And Hasbro soared 11.2% after a strong quarter, led by Magic: The Gathering cards, bringing in more than $600 million in three months. Yes. Trading cards beat Apple on Tuesday.
A market that only wins when its five superstars hit every shot is a fragile team. Tuesday, the stars went cold, and the bench still won by double digits. That's the healthiest thing we've seen in weeks. It doesn't mean the stars are washed. It means the team isn't one sprained ankle away from losing the season.
GM had a great quarter and still got sent to the locker room
Not every veteran had a good night. General Motors fell 6.8% to $77.09. GM has had only seven moves bigger than 5% in the past year, per StockStory, so this one stung. The weird part: the quarter itself was strong. Revenue hit $50 billion, the company announced a fresh $20 billion plan to buy back its own stock, and it raised its forecast for the cash it expects to bring in this year.
So why the boo birds? GM's forecast for full-year profit per share came in at $12.75 to $13.75. The middle of that range, $13.25, was a bit below the $13.41 Wall Street wanted, per StockStory. GM also warned that higher prices for metals and other raw materials will cost it about $2 billion. That's the stuff that becomes your next truck, getting pricier before it ever hits the lot.
Jet-engine maker GE Aerospace had a similar night: solid results, stock down 3.7% anyway.
Investors don't grade the game you just played. They grade the schedule ahead. GM put up big numbers and then basically said, "Next season's going to be a little tougher." A $20 billion buyback is a nice gesture, like a coach buying the team pizza. It doesn't make the schedule any easier.
After the buzzer: SpaceX came off the bench
The real fireworks came after hours, which is trading after the market's 3:00 PM CT close.
SpaceX, the rocket company that's now public, said revenue jumped 161% to $14.58 billion from a year earlier. Much of the growth came from renting out computing power for AI. Then Elon Musk said on the earnings call that the boards of SpaceX and Tesla have each formed special committees to study merging the two companies. Musk said calling a merger a sure thing "would be overstating it," and that he isn't on either committee. Nothing is agreed, but he called it a good idea. Get ready to hear about it for months.
SpaceX stock was up about 9% before the open on Wednesday, per CNBC. ("Before the open" means early trading before the 8:30 AM CT bell.)
Others who played late:
Netflix was down more than 6% before the open, per CNBC, after reporting its slowest sales growth in three years. Revenue was $12.87 billion, up 12%, and its forecast for this quarter came in under what analysts wanted.
Super Micro Computer, which builds servers for AI data centers, rose 12% after hours, per CNBC, after raising its quarterly sales forecast to $18.5 billion to $19.5 billion, up from $14.5 billion to $15.5 billion.
Intuitive Surgical, the surgery-robot company, fell 10% after hours, per CNBC, after its results didn't impress.
The AI trade got a pep talk overnight, which is why Nasdaq futures (bets on where the index will open) were up Wednesday morning. But Tuesday's lesson still stands. The stars are about to take the floor tonight with Tesla and Meta, and the bench can't carry them if they air-ball.
Quick hits
Interest rates eased. The 10-year Treasury yield, which steers mortgage and car-loan rates, slipped to 5.12% from 5.15% Monday, per the Treasury Department. A small breather for anyone house hunting.
Oil had a wild day and went nowhere. Prices dropped early on reports that Pakistan's army chief, a go-between for the U.S. and Iran, met with Iran's president. Then they bounced back. The oil fund finished down just 0.1%. Nobody has announced talks or a deal. A Mizuho analyst said he doesn't see anybody putting a peace deal forward.
Asia cheered up. South Korea's main index, the Kospi, closed up 3.3% Wednesday, getting back most of Tuesday's drop as the SpaceX and Super Micro news lifted chip stocks.
What to Watch Today
Wednesday, October 21. Times are Central.
Time (CT) | What | Why you care |
|---|---|---|
Before the open | Earnings from AT&T, Abbott, Danaher, Elevance Health, Philip Morris, and CME Group | Phones, medical gear, health insurance, and cigarettes. The bench gets another shot. |
9:30 AM | Weekly government oil inventory report | How much crude is sitting in storage? An industry group's count on Tuesday night showed a drop of about 4.9 million barrels of crude. |
12:00 PM | The government sells 20-year bonds | If buyers are picky, borrowing costs (and mortgage rates) can tick up. |
After the close | Meta (call ~3:30 PM) and Tesla (call ~4:30 PM) | The starters. Tesla now comes with merger chatter attached. |
After the close | IBM, Texas Instruments, Las Vegas Sands, United Rentals, Southwest, CSX | Computers, chips, casinos, equipment rentals, planes, and trains. |
The Fed: officials are in their quiet period before next week's meeting, so no speeches. The decision lands on Wednesday, October 28, at 1:00 PM CT. The current target range is 3.75% to 4.00%.
Overnight, U.S. stock futures were mixed early Wednesday. Nasdaq futures were up, Dow futures were roughly flat, thanks to SpaceX and Super Micro.
The one thing that could ruin everyone's day: Meta and Tesla tonight. Tuesday proved the bench can win without them. It hasn't been proven that the bench can win if they actively lose. Meta has to explain how much it's spending on AI. Tesla has to explain its cars and a possible merger with a rocket company. On the same night.
Bottom line: Big Tech sat down, and the market still won. Enjoy it, because tonight the starters check back in, and nobody on the bench wants to play 48 minutes.
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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. We are a newsletter with opinions and a spreadsheet. Do your own homework, and maybe don't bet the house on a team just because its bench had one good night.