Retail Trader

Retail Trader Ideas and Deep Dives

Oct 2, 2026

America Feels Broke. It Booked a Cruise Anyway.

Consumer confidence hit a 12-year low the same morning Carnival posted record revenue. Then one Fed voter said "no rush."

Oct 2, 2026

The Thermometer Said Fever. The Fed Said Let's See How You Feel Friday.

Factory prices jumped. Two Fed voters preached patience anyway, and the 2-year yield dropped 10 basis points. Now the jobs report decides who was right.

Oct 2, 2026

Inflation Got a New Bathroom Scale. Bonds Stepped On the Old One.

Core PCE rose to 3.0% after the government changed how it weights three factors. Hike odds fell to about a third. The 30-year hit its highest close since 2002, anyway.

Sep 29, 2026

Peace Talks Died on Arrival. Gold Fell Anyway.

Trump said no to Iran, yields hit 2007 highs, and the world's panic room had its worst day since June.

Sep 28, 2026

The Week Ahead: Grounded Before the Report Card Comes Home

The market already priced in the punishment. This week, the economy brings home its grades.

Sep 25, 2026

The S&P Took a Nap. The 30-Year Went Full 2004.

Stocks moved two hundredths of a percent. Long-term Treasury yields hit two-decade highs, oil ran again, and Meta remembered it sells glasses.

Sep 24, 2026

The Economy Is Running Hot. Your Mortgage Noticed.

Business surveys hit a five-year high. The 10-year yield hit its highest close since 2007. A Fed governor said more hikes are likely. Stocks did the math and did not like the answer.

Sep 23, 2026

The App That Cancels Your Gym Membership

On Monday, Meta's Muse made Meta money. On Tuesday, Wall Street worked out whose money it takes: banks, insurers, gyms and phone companies. The Nasdaq set another record anyway.

Sep 22, 2026

Meta Built a Butler. Amazon Locked the Door.

An AI app sent Meta up 11%, pushed AMD past $1 trillion, and gave the Nasdaq a record close. Oil fell on the word "probably."

Sep 21, 2026

The Week Ahead: Ten Speeches, Three Auctions, Zero Data

The Fed just made the biggest decision in three years. Now everyone gets a microphone and nothing new to announce.

Sep 18, 2026

The Fed Yelled. The Market Slept On It.

One day after the first hike in three years, stocks rallied, the 10-year slipped back under 5%, and the auction we warned you about went badly. Nobody cared.

Sep 17, 2026

The Hike Was the Opening Act. The Dot Plot Was the Headliner.

Twelve votes to nothing, a quarter point, and sixteen of eighteen officials wrote down that it was the small one.

Sep 16, 2026

Five Percent. The Bond Market Hasn't Charged That Since 2007.

Yesterday we said the noon auction was the one thing that could ruin everyone's day. It ruined everyone's day.

Sep 15, 2026

The AI Bosses Asked for a Speed Limit. The Chip Makers Got the Ticket.

Anthropic and OpenAI asked AI to slow down, chip stocks had their worst day since July, the 10-year touched 5%, and Saudi Arabia shut its pipeline around Hormuz. The Fed starts meeting today.

Sep 14, 2026

The Week Ahead: Everyone Can See the Rabbit

The Fed's hike is priced like a sure thing. The real trick is what it says about October.

Sep 11, 2026

Oil Hit $100. The Oil Companies Called In Sick.

Crude had its best day in a month, energy stocks fell anyway, the 30-year yield hit its highest since 2007, and Oracle spent $28 billion in a quarter to a standing ovation. CPI lands at 7:30.

Sep 10, 2026

Oil Hit $100 and the Market Finally Looked Up From Its Phone

Two sessions in one, because our data feed took two days off: stocks fell both days, oil ran 5.6%, the 10-year closed at its highest since 2023, and Meta started charging $20 a month for a robot assistant. Then producer prices came in hot this morning, so tomorrow's CPI just got heavier.

Sep 10, 2026

The Jobs Report Was Great, Which Is the Problem

August added 162,000 jobs versus 56,000 expected; June and July added another 55,000, and the S&P fell anyway. Hike odds jumped nine points in a day. Then everyone got a three-day weekend to sit with it, and Canada opened Tuesday by taxing your steel.

Sep 8, 2026

The Week Ahead: Nobody at the Fed Is Allowed to Talk About Friday

Two inflation prints, a tanker war, and an Apple keynote. The one institution that matters is on mute.

Sep 7, 2026

The Holiday Was Signed in the Middle of a Strike

Labor Day was not invented for mattresses. The law was signed on June 28, 1894, while the trains were stopped, a company town was on strike, and the troops had not left for Chicago yet.

Sep 4, 2026

The Inflation Data Won the Argument and Lost the Day

Services prices printed 72.6 against 66 expected. Then a Fed governor said he was inclined to hold; the odds of a hike fell from about 66% to roughly 55%, and the market stopped taking the data's calls. Payrolls at 7:30, then three days to sit with the answer.

Sep 3, 2026

The Fed Finally Sent Out Somebody Who Isn't Angry

ADP came in soft. Then New York's John Williams said there are no clear signs a September hike is needed. Yields backed off their intraday high, small caps ran 1.18%, and gold got up off the floor. The hike is still priced. The panic is not.

Sep 2, 2026

War Used to Be a Fear Trade. Now It's an Inflation Trade.

The US bombed IRGC targets at noon Eastern, and Iran fired back the same afternoon. Oil rose 5.5%, gold dropped 2.9%, and the 10-year closed at its highest level of 2026. Nobody hid. Everybody repriced.

Sep 1, 2026

The Shooting Started Again. Gold Went Down Anyway.

The US and Iran traded strikes, a tanker took three projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz, and oil ran 3.1%. The one asset built for exactly this day did nothing at all, because Kevin Warsh got to the front of the line on Friday.

Aug 31, 2026

The Week Ahead: The Scorekeeper Erased Last Season

79,000 jobs were never there. The Fed gets one week to talk about it, then goes dark.

Retail Trader

America Feels Broke. It Booked a Cruise Anyway.

The Thermometer Said Fever. The Fed Said Let's See How You Feel Friday.

Inflation Got a New Bathroom Scale. Bonds Stepped On the Old One.

Peace Talks Died on Arrival. Gold Fell Anyway.

The Week Ahead: Grounded Before the Report Card Comes Home

The S&P Took a Nap. The 30-Year Went Full 2004.

The Economy Is Running Hot. Your Mortgage Noticed.

The App That Cancels Your Gym Membership

Meta Built a Butler. Amazon Locked the Door.

The Week Ahead: Ten Speeches, Three Auctions, Zero Data

The Fed Yelled. The Market Slept On It.

The Hike Was the Opening Act. The Dot Plot Was the Headliner.

Five Percent. The Bond Market Hasn't Charged That Since 2007.

The AI Bosses Asked for a Speed Limit. The Chip Makers Got the Ticket.

The Week Ahead: Everyone Can See the Rabbit

Oil Hit $100. The Oil Companies Called In Sick.

Oil Hit $100 and the Market Finally Looked Up From Its Phone

The Jobs Report Was Great, Which Is the Problem

The Week Ahead: Nobody at the Fed Is Allowed to Talk About Friday

The Holiday Was Signed in the Middle of a Strike

The Inflation Data Won the Argument and Lost the Day

The Fed Finally Sent Out Somebody Who Isn't Angry

War Used to Be a Fear Trade. Now It's an Inflation Trade.

The Shooting Started Again. Gold Went Down Anyway.

The Week Ahead: The Scorekeeper Erased Last Season

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