The Market Threw a Comeback Party. Nvidia Spent It Talking to HR.

Monday, November 9, 2026

The 30-second version: Stocks had their best day since April on Monday, helped by cheaper oil and a big comeback for chip stocks. The one chip stock that didn't come back was Nvidia, whose CEO is now the subject of a board investigation. The October inflation report lands at 7:30 this morning, and one Fed official already said it could mean a bigger rate hike. Your 401(k) won back a chunk of last week's losses, about 2.3% in one day.

The fund rows (IWM, GLD, USO) are there for the move, not the price. The SOX is a basket of 30 big chip stocks. The VIX, the "fear gauge," measures how much traders will pay to protect against big swings. Bitcoin is a 24-hour close.

The $1,000 test: $1,000 in an S&P 500 fund made about $23 on Monday. $1,000 in AMD made about $133. $1,000 in Nvidia lost about $43, which is a very expensive way to learn that the boss's personal life is a business risk.

The S&P 500 rose 2.35% Monday to 7,549.94. That's its best day since April 8, by our own count. The Dow added 1,104 points (AP). The Nasdaq jumped 2.74%. Small companies did even better, which is what happens when investors stop hiding under the desk and start ordering appetizers.

Two things did the lifting. Oil got cheaper (more below), and the chip stocks that got flattened last Thursday bounced hard. The fear gauge fell 22%, the market's version of everyone quietly putting the fire extinguisher back on the wall.

Context, so nobody pops champagne: the S&P is still below where it finished October (7,580). Thursday's 4.36% fall was about worries that the new Democratic Congress will slow down AI data centers. Nobody has cancelled that worry. They just stopped screaming about it.

NVIDIA fell 4.27% on a day the chip index rose 6.85%. It opened down about 7% and wiped out almost $200 billion in stock market value (NBC, Bloomberg).

The reason is not chips. In a Sunday memo to staff, CEO Jensen Huang admitted he was "unfaithful to my wife" (CNBC). U.S. intelligence agencies say the woman, Alice Huang, an executive at a cloud company called Megaspeed, has been passing information to Beijing, according to The New York Times and the Financial Times. The two Huangs are not related (NBC). China called the spy story "smears." Megaspeed didn't answer requests for comment.

NVIDIA's board opened an independent investigation. It said it has "no reason to believe that either national security or NVIDIA secrets were compromised," and a spokesperson said Huang plans to keep leading the company "without interruption" (NBC). Analyst Dan Ives called it a "black eye moment" (CNBC). NVIDIA reports earnings on November 17, so the CEO gets about a week before he has to talk about something else on a live call.

Last Thursday, the chip index lost 12.25%, its worst day since March 2020. Since then, it's up about 11%, and it now sits only about 2% below where it was before the crash. Recoveries usually take the stairs. This one took the elevator and pressed every button.

AMD led the class. It rose 13.26% Monday after 11.04% Friday, about 26% in two days. Broadcom gained 8.78%, Marvell 9.49%, Micron 6.25%. Tesla added 5.54% and Meta 5.12% for good measure.

We couldn't find one clean reason for AMD's run beyond "it fell a lot, and people came back for it." Some investors may also like any chip company whose CEO is currently boring.

Brent crude, the world's main oil price, fell 5.85% Monday to settle at $92.57 a barrel. U.S. crude fell 4.38% to $86.85 (Reuters, via FinanceFeeds; AP also had Brent down 5.8%). Overnight, Brent slipped under $90 (CNBC).

The trigger: Trump said Monday the war with Iran could end "fairly soon" and that Tehran was "talking very politely" (CNBC). He also said Gulf allies prefer to keep the naval blockade of Iran in place. So, peace is coming, and the blockade is staying. Pick your favorite half.

No deal has been signed. One energy consultant told CNBC he sees no prospect of a peace deal, citing gaps over nuclear material and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Before dawn: Futures, which are bets on where stocks will open, were split. Dow futures were up about 0.3% and Nasdaq-100 futures down about 0.3% as of about 4:45 AM CT (CNBC via Stocktwits). In plain English: everyone is waiting for one number.

Why there's no yearly inflation number: the Labor Department never collected October 2025 prices during last year's government shutdown. No last October means no "compared with a year ago." So today the whole fight is over one month's change. It's like grading a student with half the report card missing, and the principal already said he's watching.

The principal, in this case, is Fed Governor Christopher Waller. He votes at every meeting. In London this morning, he said he'd back a rate hike in December even if October looks better. And if inflation runs hot, "I believe a 50 basis point hike in the policy rate should be considered," he said, since "hiking only 25 basis points would put our credibility at risk" (CNBC). A basis point is a hundredth of a percent, so 50 means a half-point hike, double the usual size. Several outlets reported his line in the sand as core prices up about 0.3% in a month.

The Fed's target range is 3.75% to 4.00% today. Betting on a December quarter-point hike was above 80% early Tuesday, with no real odds on a half point yet (CME FedWatch, via CNBC). That second number is the one to watch after 7:30.

Wednesday is Veterans Day. Stocks trade. The bond market closes.

The one thing that could ruin everyone's day: Core inflation at 0.3% or higher. Then "half-point hike" stops being one man's idea and becomes a bet with real money behind it, and Monday's rally finds out how much of it was rented.

Bottom line: Monday, the market got back up off the floor. Tuesday, the Fed walks in at 7:30 holding the report card, and Waller already told us which grade he's circling.

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Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. We are a newsletter with opinions and a spreadsheet. Do your own homework, and please don't sell your 401(k) because a CEO had a bad weekend.