What Happened Yesterday
Tuesday, September 29
Close | Move | Mood | |
|---|---|---|---|
S&P 500 (SPY) | 764.20 | -0.18% | Shrugged at everything |
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) | 737.93 | +0.19% | Only green one. Insufferable. |
Dow (DIA) | 512.88 | -0.22% | Second day down |
Russell 2000 (IWM) | 279.01 | -0.36% | Worst of the four |
VIX | 16.04 | -0.19% | Napped through it |
10-Year Treasury | 5.25% to 5.26% | +1 to +2 bp | Still a 2007 number |
30-Year Treasury | 5.57% to 5.59% | +2 to +3 bp | Highest since 2002 |
Gold (GLD) | 382.89 | +1.32% | Found a pulse |
Oil (USO) | 143.35 | -4.44% | The detour reopened |
Bitcoin | $83,622 | +0.14% | Asleep |
The S&P 500 index closed at 7,670.84 (-0.17%). The Nasdaq Composite finished at 26,797.54 (-0.09%). The Dow lost about 132 points to 51,349.92. Yield ranges span EODHD and Treasury's own curve. Bitcoin is the UTC-day bar.
The Vibes Hit a 12-Year Low. The Cruise Ships Are Full.
The Conference Board asked Americans how they feel. The answer was 81.9, down 6.7 points and nowhere near the 89.2 economists expected. That's the lowest consumer confidence reading since 2014. The write-in complaints were about prices, especially gas prices. Nobody needed a survey for that. They needed a gas station.
The same morning, Carnival reported record revenue of $8.43 billion, beat on profit, raised its full-year forecast, and said 2027 is already half booked at record prices. The stock jumped 13.41%. So the country is too broke to be confident and too busy to answer the phone, because it's at the buffet.
CarMax piled on. It earned $1.16 a share when Wall Street expected 68 cents, per Zacks, on revenue up 19.5%. Shares rose 4.74%.
The one number that matched the mood: job openings slipped to 7.1 million in August, per the Labor Department's JOLTS report (the monthly count of "Help Wanted" signs). Forecasters wanted 7.23 million.
The $1,000 test: $1,000 in Carnival at Monday's close was $1,134 by Tuesday's. Misery pays well if you own the boat.
Ask people how they feel and they say broke. Check their card statement, and they're on the lido deck. The Fed doesn't raise rates on feelings. It raises them on spending, and the spending just ordered another round.
One Fed Voter Said "No Rush
The Bond Market Heard Half
New York Fed President John Williams, who votes at every meeting, said he sees "no need for urgency" after September's hike. "We have time to gather more information." He still thinks one more hike may be needed late this year. Just not necessarily in four weeks.
Traders took the hint. Odds of an October hike fell from about 70% last week to roughly a coin flip, per CME FedWatch (the scoreboard built from futures bets on Fed meetings). The 2-year yield, which is the bond market's guess at the Fed, eased to about 4.89%.
The long end didn't get the memo. The 30-year touched 5.62% during the day and closed around 5.57% to 5.59%, the highest since 2002. Yesterday we said 5.6% was the line. It got tagged, then it backed off. That's a warning shot, not a rescue.
Short rates are about what the Fed does next month. Long rates are about whether anybody believes inflation is going away. A patient Fed and a 30-year near 5.6% means your mortgage rate heard "no rush" and kept the meter running.
Oil Got Its Detour Back
The oil fund USO fell 4.44%, its biggest drop since August 25, and the Brent fund BNO dropped 2.62%. Two reasons, and neither one is peace.
First, Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is exporting again. That's the pipe that carries crude around the Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, and drone attacks shut it in mid-September. Bloomberg reports flows of at least 3.5 million barrels a day. Second, US and Iranian officials met with mediators again. Status check: talks, not a deal. Nothing is signed. Trump's weekend "no" still stands.
The market didn't price in peace. It priced in plumbing. One repaired pipe did more for your gas bill in a day than a month of diplomacy, which tells you how the diplomacy is going.
The Rest of the Tape: AI Signed a Pinky Swear
Apple fell 2.66%. Bank of America's Wamsi Mohan warned that Meta's Muse AI agent could pull shopping away from Apple's ecosystem. He kept his Buy rating, which is Wall Street for "this could hurt, anyway, love you." Meta rose 3.24%. That $1,000 from August 31 is back to about $1,290.
AI got a constitution. Trump and the heads of Google, Meta, Anthropic, Nvidia, xAI, and OpenAI's president signed the "White House Accord on Super Intelligence." It promises internal controls, outside auditors, and board oversight. It's voluntary, with no penalties. Trump called it "morally binding."
"Morally binding" is what you call a contract when no lawyer in the room would let it be the other kind. The labs promised to grade their own homework, and hired a tutor to watch.
What to Watch Today
Wednesday, September 30 (all times CT). Last trading day of the third quarter.
7:15 AM: ADP's September private payrolls. Forecast is about 70,000 jobs, after 38,000 in August.
7:30 AM: August PCE from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, not CPI. Core PCE (minus food and energy) is expected up 0.3% on the month and 3.3% to 3.4% on the year, depending on whose survey you read.
Fed speakers: Richmond's Tom Barkin and Chicago's Austan Goolsbee (neither votes this year), and Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari (he does, and he wanted a hike back in July).
After the close: Micron. The company guided to about $50 billion in revenue and about $31 a share in adjusted profit. Wall Street's estimates sit a bit above both. Analysts say that's about 350% more revenue than a year ago. The stock closed at 1,065.08. There's no room on that chart for "fine."
Pre-market: futures were flat to slightly higher early Wednesday.
Coming up: September jobs land Friday at 7:30 AM. The Fed meets October 27-28, with the target range at 3.75% to 4.00%.
The one thing that could ruin everyone's day
A hot PCE at 7:30. Williams said the Fed has time to gather more information. This is the information. Core at 0.3% keeps October a coin flip. Anything hotter and the coin lands on "hike," the 30-year goes back to 5.6%, and yesterday's "no rush" ages like milk before lunch.
America says it's miserable. It said so from a deck chair.
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